So when will it actually happen? Don’t hold your breath for a federal raise this year—most analysts say 2026 is the earliest possible window, if the stars align. But many states and cities are moving ahead on their own. 22 states already increased their minimums in 2026, with Hawaii and Maryland jumping to $14 and $15 respectively. By 2026, expect at least 10 more states to hit $15 or higher.
A fun little fact: Seattle’s $15 minimum wage experiment found that workers earned more overall, but some businesses did see slightly higher prices—about 4% for groceries and 1% for dining. So the raise is real, but it comes with micro-inflation that you might notice in your wallet.
